This Summer, One Housing Market Split Into Two

Over the twelve weeks ending August 23, 2026, closings fell in McKinney, Frisco and Prosper while Aubrey, Celina and Justin sold notably more homes than a year earlier, and Prosper buyers wait longer to go pending than buyers in Allen.

Across the twelve weeks ending August 23, 2026, the territory closed 3,118 homes, down from 3,247 over the same stretch a year earlier. That's a small dip, barely worth a headline on its own. It also hides almost everything about what actually happened underneath it.

Line up every ZIP in this buy box by how its closings moved compared with a year ago, and the same market splits in half. Some places sold noticeably fewer homes than they did last year. Others sold noticeably more. Ranked worst to best, here is how it broke.

McKinney fell furthest. Closings there dropped about 30% from a year ago, the steepest pullback anywhere in the territory.

Frisco wasn't far behind. Its three markets moved together in direction if not in size, with year-over-year declines ranging from about 17% to 29%.

Prosper landed close to that same range, down about 18% from a year ago.

Then the ranking flips. Justin sold about 11% more homes than it did a year earlier. Celina sold about 19% more. And Aubrey posted the strongest gain anywhere in the territory, up about 21% from a year ago.

The same twelve weeks produced a pullback in one corner of the territory and a rally in another.

That split isn't only about how many homes sold. It shows up in how long a home takes to go under contract, too. In Prosper, the median listing currently takes about 74 days to reach pending status, the longest wait of any market in this ranking.

Allen looks nothing like that. There, the median time to pending runs 54 days, the fastest pace in the territory this period.

Same metric, same twelve weeks, two very different waits. One buy box, two different markets to sell into.

For a seller, that gap is the difference between pricing for a market that reacts fast and pricing for one that takes its time. A listing that would sit close to ten weeks in Prosper might be under contract in under two months somewhere running Allen's pace. For a buyer, it's the difference between needing a decision this weekend and having actual room to think one through.

If you're selling into McKinney or the slower end of Frisco right now, the comparison that matters isn't last spring, it's this ranking. Price for the pace this period is actually showing, not the one a neighbor sold into a year ago. If you're selling in Aubrey, Celina or Justin, you're stepping into a market absorbing meaningfully more closings than it did last year, and that changes the conversation on the other side of the table.

The number worth watching next period is whether Prosper's wait narrows back toward the rest of the territory, or whether that gap holds. That's the difference between a slow stretch and a market settling into a genuinely different pace.

Figures here come from MLS sold data across the twelve weeks ending August 23, 2026.